A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
